"Republic's election not about Adams or unity, it's about the economy, stupid" - Latest news, Hottest news

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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

"Republic's election not about Adams or unity, it's about the economy, stupid"

There was a predictable explosion of froth and foam in reaction to the news that gay couples may be allowed to register civil partnerships in church.

Contrary to what some pundits are saying, the story of the Republic's general election is not Sinn Fein; rather it has become a remarkable tale of resurrection with a political Lazarus at the centre of the narrative.

Less than 12 months ago, some commentators were suggesting that Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny should go into a darkened room, embolden himself with a bottle of whiskey and put a revolver to his head.

At the time this rather crass and insensitive 'advice' was handed out, Kenny's stock among the south's political leadership was low. The man from Mayo was seen as the anchor weighing down his party's progress from the doldrums of 2002, when it endured a hammering at that year's general election, to becoming an alternative government.

The 'suicide' reference was also prompted by stirrings within Fine Gael that there could be a putsch against Kenny, with back-room strategists arguing that he was a liability, rather than an electoral asset. That coup d'etat, however, came and went, with expected challengers, such as Richard Bruton, failing to deliver the knock-out blow.

And yet, only a few months later, Kenny is almost certain to be elected Taoiseach on Friday. Moreover, the Fine Gael leader may even take command of a government ruled by a single party without the support of its traditional coalition partners, the Irish Labour Party. Kenny had a good week last week - arguably the best so far in a campaign that has, by and large, been lacklustre.

The latest opinion polls suggest Fine Gael could win up to 75 seats, which would be eight short of 83 - the magic figure for an overall majority in the Dail.

The party is now looking at the performance of the record number of independent candidates standing in this election from which they hope to find some new allies once the votes are cast.

Already, Fine Gael has identified five potential independent deputies, including their former member Michael Lowry, as 'probables' who will support a Kenny-led administration.

Given that a slew of non-aligned TDs will be returned to the next Dail, Fine Gael are hoping that they will be able to woo at least another three new members into the fold.

Recent days have been marked by toxic exchanges between Fine Gael and Labour, sparked off, it has to be said, by Kenny's party.

Fine Gael has tried to paint Labour as the party of tax-and-spend and an opponent of public sector reforms. By contrast, Fine Gael's manifesto talks about culling 30,000 public sector jobs in order to drive down the deficit.

Labour and Fine Gael disagree fundamentally in relation to the target date to reduce that debt by 3% of Irish GDP. Fine Gael wants to stick to the goal of 2014, which the IMF and European Central Bank have also agreed to.

On the other hand, Labour believes if the next government cuts public services, welfare payments and state jobs too quickly it will tip a country already in recession into depression. Instead, Labour wants to extend out the drive-down to 2016.

Given the widening chasm between the two parties, it would appear that they will be unable to find common ground to form an administration. In these circumstances, Kenny and his team sense that the public mood is changing; that overall people, especially the middle class, want stability in government.

In the final days of the campaign, Fine Gael will use that word over and over again: 'stability'. Only a single-party government led by Fine Gael can provide a coherent programme to tackle the debt, end the fiscal crisis and restore confidence at home and aboard, they will contend.

The only real remaining question - and it is one the whole of the eurozone will be watching - is whether Fine Gael can get the numbers and the allies to make up a government without having to water down their programme to suit Labour.

Rancour, too, is the order of the day in the secondary battle of this election - the one between Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein to see who comes in third place.

The Soldiers of Destiny have turned their firepower on Sinn Fein, raising Gerry Adams' IRA past, the Northern Bank robbery and the disappearance and murder of Jean McConville. Adams, meanwhile, made a huge gaffe on radio when he described a new tax as a "gross act of terrorism" against the Irish people.

Even if he weathers the storm and, as seems likely, takes a seat in Louth, and even if his party trebles its representation in the Dail, it does not mark any significant milestone in its strategy towards building a United Ireland.

Why? Because the question of Northern Ireland did not make it onto the agenda of any major debate in this election. Northern Ireland is a virtually irrelevant question in the Republic these days.

For the overwhelming number of voters in the south, the key question is the economy and how to save Ireland from financial ruin. Then come the interconnected issues of public spending, cuts in the health service, thousands emigrating, the state of the country's schools and so on.

In a time when the country faces bankruptcy and when the state and its services are reliant on foreign largesse, no one bar a few are talking about the road to reunification.

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